Irrationality (1992) by Stuart Sutherland is an absolutely superb book. The book goes through common ways that people act irrationally. It’s compact, well written and witty.

Sutherland was an experimental psychologist who clearly understood his subject and had seen just how poorly people make many decisions. He goes through how we make decisions badly in groups, because of sunk costs and because of our inability to look at numbers carefully and properly. Most of the 20 or so chapters looks at a particular aspect of irrationality and there are a few points summarizing the chapter at the end.There is also a chapter on the paranormal which doesn’t quite fit with the rest of the book. It does, however, provide some nice examples of people failing to be rational.

There is so much in the book that is worth thinking about, there are so many good examples of just how we consistently go wrong. There are fine quotes, such as “intuition is that strange instinct that tells a person that he is right, whether he is or not”. There are examinations of how evidence was systematically ignored, such as by the US commanding General at Pearl Harbor. The book’s conclusion also looks at why we think the way we do. Sutherland makes the point that for most of human existence quick decisions under pressure were life and death ones. He points out that drawing up tables of probability is a bad strategy for dealing with lion attacks. But the way our brain evolved to serve us under those conditions means that in the radical new world of civilization we have to consciously think about our actions in a way that doesn’t come naturally to us.

This book was from the library but is so good that I’ve just ordered it.

4.5 / 5

Connections (2007) by James Burke is a superb book about the development of science and technology. Burke was Oxford educated and has an MA in Middle English. He became a science reporter and was the BBC’s chief reporter on the Project Apollo mission. He was a reporter on the Tomorrow’s World program and learnt how to make science and technology interesting. He also had a deep understanding of European History. He made the documentary video series of Connections in 1978 in the tradition Kenneth Clark’s Civilisation and Jacob Bronowski’s The Ascent of Man. Connections the book is the adaption of the video series to print. Connections looks at how technology and science developed historically. Each chapter in Connections looks at a modern technology and then traces its development from the past. Burke is brilliant at finding a story that runs through these developments.

Burke’s video series allow him to use his voice, actions and video footage to emphasize the points that he is making. In the book Burke has to write and provide illustrations. He does both well. Video is more spectacular, but with a book the reader can go back and forth over things more easily. Burke makes the point that much technological innovation has not been commissioned by Research and Development offices and planned. Instead an invention somewhere, for instance in weaving technology through paper patterns has led to machinery for automation that led to automated counting for the US census that led to the punch card for computing. Some technological innovation has been directed by government and has come from theoretical underpinnings. The development of improvements in navigation through accurate clocks that worked from springs rather than from pendulums is one example. In modern times atomic power and weapons and the delivery systems for them, the jet aircraft and the missile and rocket, are another.

Science, engineering and mathematics is not taught as it was developed historically and instead tend to be taught axiomatically from the most rigorous start possible. Academics also have a tendency to put forward a view where it is ideas from academies that are then developed by practical people. This may be the case recently for some inventions, such as the transistor and atomic bomb, but for much technological development it has not been the case. Connections makes this case.

Connections has 10 Chapters:

1) The Trigger Effect – that traces the breakdown of the US electricity network to the beginning of agriculture and introduces the book.

2) The Road from Alexandria – that goes from the extraction of gold in North Western Turkey in millenium before christ to the atomic bomb.

3) Distant Voices – Starts with the nuclear fusion and fission and then jumps back to The Battle of Hastings and the stirrup and then returns to the present with the  development of the telephone.

4) Faith in Numbers – Starts with telecommunication and electro-magnetism and jumps back to the monasteries and then goes to the development of punch cards.

5) The Wheel of Fortune – Starts with the computer from the punch card and then goes back to early astronomy and finishes with the development of factories.

6) Fuel to the Flame – Starts with tools and factories and then goes back to Medieval Warm period and the cooling that went for several hundred years and then goes through developments that led to the car and the internal combustion engine and mentions early aircraft development.

7) The Long Chain – Starts with the jet engine and then goes back to Holland being the world’s leading trading and financial power and then moves through history to the invention of PVC.

Eat, Drink and Be Merry – Starts with plastics and then leaps back to the development of credit and then the history of muskets and then to the development of refrigeration and rocketry.

9) Lightning the Way – Starts with the Moon Landing, mentions the accelerometer then goes back to forts, cannon and then on to television.

10) Inventing the Future – Summarises the book and talks about how history neglects technology and why we should look at the history of technology.

The book is very clever in the way each chapter sets up the next. The jumps that occur when going backward are natural. The history that Burke looks at is fascinating. The view if euro-centric but does include Arabic mathematics and credits China with inventions that were critical to Western Science and technology, that of the compass, gunpowder and paper and the printing press. But as modern science has developed from European science it is not unreasonable to concentrate on their development. Burke does allude to the Needham Question. It was interesting to see the Medieval Warm period, which since 1995 has been disputed by some paleo-climatologists as being regarded simply as historic fact.

The book also provides an interesting view in contrast to that of A farewell to Alms on development before the industrial revolution. Burke clearly sees life as getting better for many people. He does brush on Malthusian views but describes technology progress as proceeding apace. Burke discusses the impact of the plague and the resultant labour shortage on technological development. Burke also provides short views into finance and talks about banks, providing a view into what The Ascent of Money would explore. This is to be expected, Civilisation and The Ascent of Man also overlap.

The book is fantastic. For anyone who is interested in history or technology it’s a great read. For those interested in both it’s a must read.

4.5/5

Who Killed Leigh Leigh (1998) by Kerry Carrington is a book about the killing of Leigh Leigh in 1989 in Stockton, a suburb of Newcastle. The murder was written into a play that became the film Blackrock .It’s a thoroughly depressing read that chronicles just how awful people can be. Leigh Leigh was a 14 year old girl who went to a 16th birthday part where she got very drunk and was raped and then killed. It’s awful. Two boys were prosecuted. Mat Webster and Tom Potts. Mat Webster for murder and Potts for carnal knowledge. Carrington alleges that others were involved. She is probably correct. She sees poor and cynical policing and a culture that is misogynistic as the causes. She is probably correct. Against this you do wonder what would be gained by other convictions. The police presumably looked at the case as solved with two convictions and doubted there was sufficient evidence to get more. Carrington sees this as a gross dereliction of duty. It’s arguable.

I’m not into true crime. This book didn’t grab me. Indeed it just made me reflect on how awful human beings can be.

2/5

Africa Rising by Vijay Mahajan (2008) is a really interesting book about Africa and the opportunities that it offers. In contrast to other books on Africa like Dead Aid and The Trouble with Africa the picture put forward is considerably more positive. Perhaps in part because the book looks forward rather than back. Mahajan is a very bright guy who went to IIT and then went on to study management and public policy. He’s an Indian so he has an interesting perspective on how places develop. His main point is that in the 1960s and 1970s many in the West thought that India was going to be a basket case. Paul Ehrlich stated that “India couldn’t possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980,” and “I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks that India will be self-sufficient in food by 1971.” Whereas now, 40 years after these sorts of thoroughly erroneous predictions India is not only feeding hundreds millions more people it is growing rapidly economically and is seen as a huge economic opportunity. Mahajan believes that similarly the Western take on Africa is wrong and that Africa is set to grow and become a bigger and bigger market.

Mahajan makes the point that there are a dozen countries in Africa with GNI per capita that is larger than China and six more with a GNI between India and China as well as the others where GNI is lower than India. The Economy of Africa is not the basket case that many people assume. This argument alone should give people pause for thought. It’s interesting that Mahajan does not make the point that India and China are increasing demand for what Africa already supplies, raw materials, to the world but it is yet another argument as to why Africa is about to take off. One thing he points to is current African growth, which stands at 5.16% over the past 2 years of the Global Financial Crisis and resultant recession, a very impressive performance.

The book is divided into two Parts, The African Opportunity and Part II Realizing the Opportunity. In the first part Mahajan introduces his view of Africa in baking bread in Zimbabwe where he looks at a mall is what is for many the prime example of African failure. He points out that even despite the Mugabe totalitarian regime the market finds ways to work and improve things. He puts forward the trade not aid case. In the second chapter, Africa is richer than you think Mahajan looks at what Africa already has and the things that have recently happened that are helping Africa enormously. He points out that cell phones and the internet are, in many ways a bigger aid for Africa than they are in the West because they break the state monopolies on communication and information. He talks about how cell phones are being used for banking and have already allowed millions in Africa to communicate. Mahajan breaks down Africa in Africa One, the already rich part of Africa One, the 50-150 million people who already have a  considerable income, Africa Two, those working hard to education their children and who have some disposable income of 350-500 million people and then Africa three, the poorest Africans, who aspire to Africa two but are still purchasing goods but who are also trying hard to keep food on the table. This 500-600 million group has less potential for those selling goods, but still some. Africa two, which is discussed in Chapter 2 Mahajan regards as the sweet spot for those targeting Africa because of its size and potential.

In Part II Mahajan looks at how people are already making profits and enriching the lives of those in Africa. Mahajan makes the point that doing business in Africa requires knowledge of the way Africa works. In Chapter 5 he looks at The Hanouti, which are small shops in Morocco. By looking at how they operate a chain of Hanouti has been created that is capable of being both cheaper for people by using economies of scale and profitable. In Chapter 5 the possibilities for providing the infrastructure that Africa lacks are probed. Water pumps, airlines and refrigeration and discussed. In Chapter 5 Generation Cheetah Mahajan talks about how youth offers great promise in Africa and how young people in Africa don’t rail about ‘colonialism’ being responsible for their ills but instead want to make money and have better government that allows them better lives. Mahajan looks at Nollywood and how entertainment works in Africa. Who knew that one of the largest film industries in the world existed in Nigeria? In chapter 8 Mahajan looks at the African diaspora and the role that it plays in enriching Africa and the world.

In the Conclusion: Ubuntu Market Mahajan provides a conclusion to the optimistic picture that he has created. He makes a strong case. As an Indian he points out that once things start working they can really take off and the West’s pessimism which has been shown to be wrong across the world may also be wrong in the case of Africa now. The book is filled with data on the value of African markets and the growth and profits of companies and people in Africa and anecdotes about success stories from Mahajan’s travels in Africa.The book is perhaps over optimistic and spends little time looking at African problems like poor infrastructure and terrible government. However, the book is clear, well written and well worth a read for those who doubt that Africa too can rise and enjoy the fruits of the market and globalisation that have been so successful in reducing hunger and poverty in the rest of the world. Let’s hope Mahajan is right.

4/5

The March of the Patriots (2009) by Paul Kelly is a fantastic book that will probably wind up either being one of the most important books describing Australian politics in the 1990s and the early part of the 21st Century or the most important. Kelly writes masterfully well and has the advantage of knowing the protagonists well. As editor of the Australian for much of the period and editor at large as well Kelly was in the ideal position to see what developed. What’s even more remarkable is his even handedness is treating both sides. He certainly has his views, but they are not common views. Most Australians are partisan toward one of the major parties. Kelly isn’t.

Kelly divides the book both chronologically and by theme. This is a good idea overall but does split related events if their themes are chosen to be separate. In particular the rise of One Nation is not shown to be related to the tough gun laws that Howard introduced after the Port Arthur massacre when there is a link. Also Howard’s treatment of illegal boat arrivals is separated from the rise of One Nation.

The books starts off by looking at the early life of Keating and Howard. The two grew up under fairly similar circumstances in Sydney’s West. Both of their parents were business people. Howard’s father died when Howard was 16 which clearly affected him. He also had a hearing impairment that caused problems for him. Nonetheless he was able to study law at Sydney University and became a solicitor for a short time before becoming a politician. Keating left school at 15 and then quickly became involved in Unions and then politics. Kelly describes the theme that the book puts together, that Keating and Howard are continuum of similar real politics but differing temperaments.

After introducing his protagonists Kelly looks at Paul Keating in Part 1: The Keating Miracle, and his ascension to Prime Minister after toppling Bob Hawke and his victory in the 1993 election. Kelly also brushes on the theme of the 24 hour news cycle. He describes Keating as hating it and not handling it well. Kelly looks at Hewson and his naive strategy that so remarkably enable Keating to win. Keating’s victory was impressive, his political cunning would serve him well but he was given an opponent who was weak. Costello’s disdain for Hewson, also evident in Costello’s book. Is also presented.

After giving fairly quick treatment to Keating’s win Kelly turns to look at Keating’s ideas in the second part, The big Picture. Kelly writes about the remarkable push by Keating that had started in the 1980s of adding more people into superannuation. His final push in 1991 that pushed superannuation into law was very impressive. It was on the eve of a recession that Keating must have had some idea was coming. The deal was done just before Keating became PM but the details had to be worked out by Keating and his then treasurer John Dawkins . Kelly does appear to respect Keating considerably but presents him as being a disorganized PM who wanted to be an ideas man, perhaps in a way to compensate for his lack of formal learning. Keating was certainly a very successful treasurer, as PM he appears less so. The severity of the early 1990s recession hit him hard. He essentially owned the problem. Kelly paints him as someone who instead wanted to be a big picture person, perhaps because he was not overly proud of his economics at the time. Whether Keating should have switched to this big picture view is questionable. But he did and also successfully courted the Left Wing intelligentsia (LWI) of Australia. The LWI was impressed by Keating’s desire to become a Republic, change the flag and engage in reconciliation with Australia’s Aborigines. Middle Australia was less impressed. One legacy of Keating’s big picture did yield results, his engagement with Asia was successful and has had long lasting effects. Despite Keating starting by lecturing Brent Snowcroft, one of the architects of the US victory in the Cold War and in the first Gulf War in a manner that was really quite amusing he did get US support for APEC and he strengthened Australian relations with Indonesia. Kelly also notes that Keating introduced mandatory detention, a policy that would be continued but explode under Howard.

In Part III The Showdown Kelly describes the contest between Howard and Keating where Howard managed to split the LWI, which was the Labour leadership, from much of the Labour base that became the Howard battlers. Howard’s rise as the Final Option due to Hewson’s dismal failure and Downer’s amusing one is given fairly short shrift.

In Part IV, The Howard System, Howards setup as PM is described. Howard is described as setting up a system where he was key and one in which he would continue the politicisation of the senior ranks of the public service. Howard also had an asset in a strong treasurer in Peter Costello. The two were not friends but had a very successful working relationship. Together they would balance the budget under fire from the public service and the unions. This was not, as Labour would later attempt to paint it as, balancing the budget in good times. Howard and Costello would also make the Reserve Bank legally independent. It was quite a step that would cause the Liberal Party pain in the short term but gain in the long term. Kelly also writes about how Howard would engage in a cultural conflict with the LWI that Keating had deliberately launched with his big picture ideas. Kelly describe’s Howard’s relations with indigenous Australia as being an opportunity wasted. Kelly has spoken to Noel Pearson who would be important in this part of Liberal politics and Pearson provides numerous interesting quotes throughout the book.

In Part V The Crisis of Legitimacy Kelly writes about the problems that would hit the Howard government early on, the waterfront crisis, the Native Title Crisis and in particular the rise of One Nation and Pauline Hanson. Howard’s tough victory in the 1998 election where he had all these setbacks but still courageously and openly proposed a new tax and won is described. With that Howard laid to rest the Ghost of Billy McMahon.

In Part VI, John Howard discovers the world Kelly writes about the Howard government, Downer and it’s relations with the world. After initially not engaging with Asia Howard and Downer’s change to further engagement is given examination.

In Part VII Howard Unleashed larger chunks of Howard’s government and the particularly successful phase that ultimately made it such a long lasting government is examined. Kelly describes Howard and Downer’s handling of East Timor as improvised but successful and establishing real foreign policy credentials for them. The introduction of the GST and the avoidance of the 2001 recession is given a surprisingly short treatment. Kelly says that Howard was skillful but that Costello was too hard line and would have failed to have passed it. Kelly hints that Howard looked at this as showing the Costello would not have made a good leader. Tampa and the Children overboard affair is described with an interval where the events of 9/11 and the Howard/Bush relationship are examined. Kelly describes the former as being unintentionally mishandled, in contrast to the myth that the ALP and others have subsequently attempted to construct of the whole issue as being a dog whistle. Kelly’s narrative is solid and makes far more sense than allowing the Left’s hatred of Howard to run wild and paint him as some evil Machiavellian genius. Kelly also points out that much of the setup was inherited from Keating. Kelly does not paint Howard and in particular Reith as being blameless, indeed he appears certain that before the 2001 election both were aware of the inadvertent construct they had painted but neither, in the run up to an election being prepared to fully overturn what had appeared.

The book ends with the 2001 election with Howard ready to step into the salad days of his time as PM when budget surpluses and the China boom would kick in.

The book is very impressive. For anyone who is seriously interested in Australian politics it’s a must read. The faults that the book has, in particular the separation of themes with chronology disturbed are justified in that they give a good view of topics. The more natural choice of strict chronological order would have broken the overview of the issues that the book instead does so well. Kelly gives more time to Howard’s 5 years than Keating’s and this is justified. The Hawke government did more than the Keating government did. Keating’s role in that was critical. By the time he became PM the ALP was always on the defensive. Keating also lost the momentum to finish the program of reforms that he had so brilliantly started. It would be left to Howard to finish the painting by bringing in the GST, balancing the budget and formally separating the Reserve Bank. The book is long, it could be called The Long March of the Patriots. But this is clearly necessary. It would also have been good to have summaries of the economic and demographic status of Australia for the period. But these are minor quibbles. The book stands as a huge achievement.

4.5 / 5.

Ponyo ( IMDB wikipedia ) 2008 is Splash with a bacon fetish remade by Studio Ghibli and Hayao Miyazaki that was written on drugs. It’s a charming Japanese animated film that allows us to relive the magic chemistry between Tom Hanks and Daryl Hannah in a very new way. It’s a fine children’s film. It’s not as polished as a Pixar film, but it is certainly beautiful in its own right. Ponyo is a goldfish with a face found by Sosuke, a young Japanese boy who lives with his mother and father, who is often away at sea, atop a cliff facing the ocean. Ponyo is the daughter of some wizard who lives beneath the sea who had children with a sea goddess. He gets Ponyo back from Sosuke but then she gains more magical powers and returns to reunite with Sosuke. It’s all very well drawn and quite amazing. Well worth a look 4/5.

Dreams from my Father by Barack Obama (1995) is an interesting book largely because of who it was written by rather than what it says. The great thing about the book is that it was written before Obama’s career had taken off. The book is an auto-biography of Obama until he reached Harvard Law School. It didn’t interest me as much as  The Audacity of Hope but it’s still worth reading and is certainly an interesting and well written book.

Obama writes about himself, his family and in particular how he has been shaped by being his father’s son. The book starts with Obama looking back at himself as 21 year old in New York. He transitions to a discussion of his mother’s family and how her parents moved around, encountering racism in the US and winding up in Hawaii where their daughter, met, married and had a child with an African student named Barack Obama. The book then moves to Indonesia where Obama and his mother moved when she married an Indonesian. There Obama had real contact with a third world country, something not many Americans and no recent president have had. He then moved back to Hawaii for high school and then book then turns to how Obama became aware of being an ‘African American’.It was there that he met his father for the last time in 1971.

He goes on to write about going to college in Los Angeles and then New York. In LA he had his first acquaintance with black politics and he got to know student activists. He then moved to New York where he completed his degree and also got to learn more about himself and politics. These chapters look at how he related to those pushing black empowerment. It also says quite a lot about how Obama related to them. It’s clearly a curious relationship. While he doesn’t explicitly refer to it, being the son of an African and growing up in Hawaii and Indonesia is a far cry from growing up as a black man in a depressed part of an American city.

Obama then became a community organiser in Chicago, working on the South Side. He writes about how hard it was, how the whole setup was broken and how the organisers didn’t stand much chance. He also writes about the ominous rise of crime and drugs while he was there. He doesn’t preach, he just writes about how things were. The book is certainly more interesting because of it.

The final part of the book deals with his visit to Kenya to visit his family there. While in Kenya Obama finds out his family history. He meets his various siblings and sees how their lives have turned out. Again, he is a very rare American, or even first world citizen. He has been to Africa not as a tourist but as someone who sees the people there. he writes about his family and his father and grand-father. It is here that he finds the Dreams from my Father that is the title of the book. He draws a narrative through his family to him, seeing him as the product of dreams from parent to child.

The book shows clear literary talent. It’s far, far more interesting than the political books that I’ve read of late, by Wayne Swan, Lindsay Tanner and Tony Abbott. But in a way Obama has a great advantage over these figures. He has a unique, interesting experience to describe. Tony Abbott and Lindsay Tanner can both write reasonably well, but they don’t have the life experience to draw on. They also chose to write political books, which is legitimate. But Obama’s political book is also better. He describes more of the nitty-gritty of being a politician and doesn’t spend much of his time attacking ‘the others’. It’s a wise lesson for a politician to learn.

4/5

Looking for Eric ( 2009 imdb ) is a charming Ken Loach film that Loach pulled from MIFF because MIFF receives money from Israel.

It’s a fine, fun film. It’s great to see a film that makes you feel good and that is intelligent. The lead role is played by Steve Evets, one time bassist for The Fall, and he does a great job. He’s a divorced man in his 50s who is having a tough time. He has two step sons who live in his house and treat him with disdain. He works as a postman. But he does have a bunch of mates who stick by him, united as work mates and as football fans.

The film treads the line between depressing realism and a fun film well. It looks like it is going to sink into the often very depressing world of British life on film.

Looking for Eric also looks at how people view celebrities and sports heroes. Cantona is an interesting figure for this, he was crucial in Manchester United’s change from also rans to being one of the biggest clubs in Europe. He was also a problematic figure, playing brilliant football but then having a serious disciplinary problem. He also made some insightful and enigmatic comments to the press.

Looking for Eric is well worth a look, it’s charming.

4/5

The Tiger that Isn’t (2007) by Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot is a fantastic book about the way numbers should be used, how important they are, how little we know about the world in terms of numbers and how they are chronically abused by the press. Blastland and Dilnot started the superb podcast More Or Less that anyone interested in current affairs should listen to.

Blastland and Dilnot point out that many numbers can be made personal. The endless silly stories about how much cancer or some other risk is raised or lowered by X or Y could be very succinctly and well put if journalists adopted a rule of saying that if X or Y were done then the rate of Z would change from, say 4-5 out of every thousand or whatever. It’s simple, easy to work out and would greatly improve things.

They talk about how counting is straightforward, but what you count changes things so much that proponents and opponents of measures can almost always happily find examples to support their case even if the examples when examined show very little. Blastland and Dilnot look at how averages can show all sorts of things. One point they make that is interesting is that most people earn less than an average because the average is pulled out by a small number of very, very high earners.

There is a chapter on targets that looks at the NHS targets in particular and how they have wound up making all sorts of health professionals do silly things in order to improve averages rather than actually improve care. It’s really fascinating. There is a chapter on sampling that points out how easy it is for sampling to confuse, conflate and distort things. On the chapter on Data they show a quiz given to senior public servants and just how badly they know the big numbers about their own country. It’s well worth doing the examples and finding out just how you do.

In the chapter on Shock figures the environmental movement and AGW alarmists come in for criticism with their pushing of extreme figures in order to scare people. Blastland and Dilnot are AGW believers themselves, but point out that much of the environmental movement acts like a lobby group. In the chapter on comparisons Blastland and Dilnot look at UK league tables and talk about the problems with them and that they have caused. It’s food for thought. The book finishes with a chapter on causation and how easily people infer causation and find too many false positives.

The Tiger that Isn’t is a Great book, one that I’d recommend for everyone. It’s well written, about an important subject and is also pleasantly concise.

4.5/5

Up ( IMDB ) 2009 by Pixar is yet another really fine Pixar film. Pixar is an astonishing success. Pixar’s cinema releases are all fine, perhaps only Cars was a letdown and even that was better than most animated films for children. Up is one of the best. It’s also the first to be in 3D. The cinema effect using circular polarization with the RealD system works very well. But technology is only a tool to tell a good story that captures your attention and charms you and this film does exactly that.

The script is polished and works really well. The film keeps up with a relentless pace, a new task is raised and resolved every few minutes while the longer story arc is kept in mind. The story concerns an old man, Carl, who attaches balloons to his house to travel, a small boy, Russel, tags along. They travel and have adventures. To say any more would be to spoil the film for people who are going to see it.

The Incredibles and Monsters, Inc remain my favourite Pixar films, but this is definitely up there with those two and the original Toy Story. A really fantastic film that should be seen by pretty much everyone.

4.5/5